Economists: German economy without "trump effect"

"America first" Donald Trump had promised his supporters in the election campaign. Above all, German export companies are concerned about the foreclosure plans of the designated US president. On the other hand, bankers see the future as a whole.


According to experts, the election of Donald Trump to the new US president will not have any major implications for the economy and the labor market in Germany.

In the medium term, however, the policy of economic foreclosure that he envisaged would become a risk for export-oriented German companies, predicted economists of German major banks in a survey conducted by the German Press Agency.

The corresponding effects would be noticeable in Germany at the earliest at the end of 2017, the experts are convinced. With consequences for the labor market, they do not expect any momentum, but at most time-delayed, even if Trumps announced a course for German exporters and could lead to a throttled investment. The German labor market had already proved itself in crisis times as crisis-proof, stressed the economists.
More accurate forecasts are still difficult, however, because at the moment Trump is the economic leader at all, said Commerzbank economist Eckart Tuchtfeld. What he was confident about was the fact "that Trump had no problems to give up some of his positions," said Tuchtfeld. Trump, however, seems to be holding onto economic protectionism - the "brand core" of his policy.

Possible medium-term dangers for the German economy also sees DZ bank economist Michael Holstein. However, he warns against taking Trumps announcements in the election campaign too literally: "Trump will not convert everything 1: 1. The Republicans will certainly not participate in all Trumps political course. "

Other economists expect Trumps policy to even temporarily provide economic impetus. "The economic stimulus plan planned by Trump could lead to a positive input", says Heiko Peters from Deutsche Bank. On the other hand, with the planned loose monetary policy of the Republican President threatened later rising US interest rates and thus capital outflow from the emerging markets into the US dollar. This would in turn make EU imports more difficult in these countries.

Reading: Poor in Rich Country: Germany

For 2017, however, the economists see no reason to correct their growth and labor market outlooks due to possible "trump effects". They expect growth to be between 1.0 and 1.4 percent - after an estimated 1.7 percent this year.

Unemployment is an increase of between 30,000 and 60,000 people. Only Rolf Schneider from the Allianz expects 2.7 million unemployed in the year - that would be as many job seekers as 2016.

In November, according to calculations by the economists, the German labor market remained at a record rate. With an estimated 2.53 million, the number of unemployed is expected to have fallen to a new all-time low - if one ignores the development before German reunification. This would be about 10 000 job-hunting less than in October and about 93 000 less than a year ago.

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